PDF How to Think Like a Daily Fantasy Football Winner

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This is where you want to roll the dice on a value QB. You want to get a guy capable of going off and being one of the best QBs on the day without paying the price.

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Strategy tip: Buy a value QB that you think will be losing or in a shoot out, you want your QB throwing a ton. If he is a huge favorite, they may not throw much in the 2nd half, and simply run the ball. This is not good for you. Underdog QBs are a good thing in this game type. You need at least one stud RB. Your second RB should be a value player capable of going off. A legitimate starter that perhaps has been quiet of late but has a tasty match-up this week is the way to go.


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Strategy tip: Take a value RB from a team that is a favorite and hope he racks up the yards late with the lead. Wide receiver is the biggest make or break position in my opinion. Spend your money on the best wide receivers. You want at least two studs period. Aside from studs you want a WR who is generally hit or miss.

You do not want a kid that has never had a big week, but rather a streaky player who with the right match-up can go off and has gone off before. Strategy tip: It is never a bad idea to grab a WR who is an underdog, even a big underdog. If his team is losing they should be throwing a lot. That is never a bad thing. In a GPP I always go with a boom or bust tight end. I like to find a guy that has disappeared for a couple weeks but has a nice matchup and hope he goes boom! Strategy tip: There is always a handful of Defenses that cannot stop the opposing Tight Ends.

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In this situation any decent TE should produce points. I will help you exploit this. I like to take a kicker against a tough Defense. In a GPP I am less worried about the opponent.

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I am looking for a Defense that can cause turnovers. We are talking forced fumbles, sacks, interceptions and hopefully a pick 6 or two. You want a defense that can score. Strategy tip: Pay attention to the weather. This is all standard. At FanDuel more than other sites, you want to shortchange your QB. Go cheap there and load up at RB and WR, because there always are cheaper QB options who have higher upside either via good matchups or under-pricing.

This is roughly the same rate as their cheaper tournaments and contests. That means it is marginally more difficult to win on FanDuel than, say, DraftKings, but the payout in larger tournaments is slightly larger if you do. The major differences here are pricing, roster and full-point PPR. This means instead of a cheap, throwaway kicker position where you can save some cap room, you now need a sixth impact player. This makes finding a cheap sleeper value play more important at DK.

The full-point PPR scoring becomes helpful, because it creates extra value for players who otherwise would not be on your radar — namely some cheaper, pass-catching RBs. They have a similar payout percentage, competing against , others — so the top This is where the fun really starts. Instead of three WRs, you get two, but you do get a second Flex.

FanDuel Winning Strategy Guide - DFS Army

Like DK, no kickers. You can go under the cap and gain points, or go over the cap and lose points — with limits for each. As a bonus, the payouts are better than 90 percent a 9 percent take by house compared to the roughly 13 percent at DK and FD. Read Next.

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SSAC16: Winning at Daily Fantasy Sports Using Analytics

This story has been shared 38, times. View author archive email the author Get author RSS feed. Because of the huge numbers of people who play fantasy sports and I'm among them, though I have never played daily fantasy; I have been in casual, season-long fantasy football leagues with my friends for years , there is a huge industry that has arisen to solve this problem. The leading sports cable network, which doesn't spend much time discussing other forms of sports betting, lavishes a tremendous amount of attention on the fantasy football implications of player aptitude, team performance and coaching decisions.

By the time game-time rolls around, fantasy sports players have a pretty good idea of how players might perform. Let's assume we choose Brady and he scores 5 fantasy points more than the average of all the other quarterbacks. If everyone chooses Brady, then the advantage we have over other bettors is zero. However, if nobody else chose Brady, than we have an advantage of 5 fantasy points more than every other bettor. In a way, that's true -- it's just that some people have a much better reason to believe than you might: they know nobody believes in them because they haven't chosen them and that they have a pretty good chance of performing well.

So, if we know how many bettors are likely to pick each athlete, then we have insight into the rarity score. Haskell's pick on Fan Duel are public, as are the distributions of ownership after each week. We can see from the chart below, made from the Fan Duel data, how rare each of Ethan Haskel's picks were, as well as how well they scored. The cluster in the upper right corner that includes Olsen, Cobb, Freeman, Green and Dalton feature a particularly powerful blend of rarity and high scoring.

Although projected points are not guaranteed, if the bettor knew the rarity of players, these five would've been excellent choices that leveraged that rarity. TheStreet: This knowledge is made more powerful by people or organizations that can afford to create many, many lineups on which to bet.


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While the combination above worked last week, there were many equally exotic combinations that Haskel and others who had prior knowledge could have created that would have looked good on paper, too. It's just that, often, the players don't always perform as expected. As they say in the real sports world, that's why we play the games. Quantifying exactly how much knowledge of ownership distributions would help a bettor requires modeling odds of points and salary cost along with this prior distribution.